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| [ Longvo
2009-12-08 ] |
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2009 domestic LED industry analysis report |
Abstract: In 2008 the global LED market size of approximately 6.9 billion U.S.
dollars, of which the high brightness and high brightness LED market, will reach
an annual average growth rate of about 20% of the market size of up to 16 billion
U.S. dollars. Applications in the mobile phone market, the rapid promotion, over
the last 10 high-brightness LED market, the average annual growth rate of 46%.
1, LED industry profile.
1, white LED to become the focus of future growth
As a new lighting technology, LED is the use of semiconductor chips as a light-emitting
materials, directly to electrical energy is converted to light-emitting devices.
Since the 20th century, the world's first 60 years since the birth of a semiconductor
light-emitting diode, LED Lighting Due to long life, energy saving, color-rich,
safe and environmentally friendly features, known as the third revolution in human
lighting.
(A) upstream: products are mainly divided into single-chip and Lei chip, single-chip
system as a substrate material.
(B) the middle: The main products are grain. Carried out according to the different
needs of LED chips Lei proliferation, metal deposition, and then the lei-chip mask,
etching, heat treatment, electrodes made of grain and finally through the die cutting,
testing, inspection complete.
(C) Downstream: grain package. Stuck in the wire frame will die, according to the
different product applications, will die package into different LED.
The focus of future growth - white LED. High-brightness white LED products that
use the most diversified development and strong growth, its demand for each year
show a significant growth (Figure 2), the future mobile phone backlighting, LCD
backlighting, general lighting and Vehicle light source the most promising.
2, backlight applications
LED as LCD backlight source, as compared with the conventional backlight technology,
in addition to energy-saving advantage, in addition, there are many unique advantages:
1) LED service life can be up to 10 million hours, significantly extending the life
of LCD TV ; 2) LED backlight have a better color gamut, good color reproduction;
3) large range of brightness adjustment; 4) LED backlight can be flexible and adjust
the light frequency, and the frequency is much higher than CCFL, thus a fine display
of motion picture production; 5 ) 3 colors red, green and blue light independently,
it is easy to real-time color management; 6) of the backlight can be adjusted white
balance, while ensuring that the overall contrast, but without sacrificing brightness
and contrast; 7) has a good brightness uniformity, the required auxiliary optical
components easier, the screen brightness uniformity even better; 8) power module
design is quite simple to use 5 ~ 24V low-voltage power supply, is very safe; 9)
LED light source does not produce any radiation, and no mercury The class of toxic
substances in green. 10) seismic performance was remarkable.
The data test in August 2007 prior to, with the LED luminous efficiency, brightness
increased, with the LED backlight to reduce the number of the current power has
been lower than the CCFL backlight. The latest data show that more than CCFL backlight
LED backlight notebook notebook low power consumption, 40%, extended battery life
1-1.5 times. As the battery is 500 times the normal charge and discharge times,
this time to improve life in disguise also reduced the battery charge and discharge
times, which is equivalent to extend battery life.
Thickness in the thickness of the current LED backlight notebook advantage has also
been made to 13.3-inch white LED notebook panels, for example, the thickness can
be thin 40%, 20% .2 lighter weight can be subject to the downstream impact of marketing
strategies notebook makers in 2008 LED universal below the expected, LED in all
respects superior to CCFL, but its price is higher than the latter. RGB LED Backlight
CCFL backlight notebook panels expensive than the 50-80 U.S. dollars; white LED
price less than 25 U.S. dollars higher than the CCFL, but the white LED edge of
CCFL will be discounted. Currently on the market have a variety of LED-backlit screen
notebook computer, the industry had expected in 2008 will be LED-backlit panels
NB in the popular, but because the downstream machine manufacturers in 2008 is still
the use of LED applications as high-end models, the price of ordinary The difference
is far higher than the notebook to use LED backlighting to increase costs.
Therefore, the downstream notebook sales strategy has a direct impact on LED penetration
in notebooks in 2007, about 3% in 2008 was 6% -8%. However, this situation is expected
to be changed after 2009. For one, LED backlit becoming more mature and downstream
notebook computer makers are already beginning to change marketing strategies.
Notebook manufacturers significant change in sales strategy in 2009, in order to
promote the popularization of LED backlight, Dell said its 15-inch LED-backlit LCD
screen at maximum brightness situations than the traditional CCFL backlight energy
saving 43%. Also announced in the next 12 months, Dell's new line of laptops will
be LED-backlit LCD screen facelift. In addition to Business series, Dell expects
its notebook shipments worldwide and 80% will be achieved by the end of 2009 comes
standard with LED backlighting, 2010 to 100%.
Dell's move shows that the concept of LED is no longer as a model or fashion models,
but rather as a standard configuration, its pricing strategy is no longer necessary
to take high-end strategy. Dell is one of the leaders within the industry, other
companies must follow. Therefore, in 2009 the penetration rate of LED in the notebook
is expected to reach 20%. 2007 Global notebook shipments 109 million units in 2008
increased 15% in 2009 increased by 10%, the 140 million notebook shipments in 2009,
among which there will be 28 million units the use of LED, pairs of LED demand is
7.03 billion .
LCD TVs and desktop monitors to large-size panel applications LED boost LCD TVs,
according to iSupply the end of 2007 statistics, the 2007 LED backlight LCD TV shipments
of 100 million units, while in 2007 out of LCD TVs volume is 78 million units, less
than 2% penetration rate. As the LED technology advances and costs decline, the
next penetration will continue to increase. Displaybank recently forecast that in
2010 the LED LCD TV penetration rate will reach 6.4% in 2011 and 2012 shipments
expected to reach 25 million and 5000 million units. We believe that the Displaybank
permeability estimates for 2010 are too conservative, we believe that the penetration
rate of 9%.
Although the LED display in desktop replacement notebooks require not so pressing,
but the LED caused by a more perfect picture quality experience for consumers will
be a tremendous temptation, with the LED continue to lower the cost of its penetration
must gradually be increased.
2, the world LED market analysis
In 2008 the global LED market size of approximately 6.9 billion U.S. dollars, of
which the high brightness and high brightness LED market, will reach an annual average
growth rate of about 20% of the market size of up to 16 billion U.S. dollars. Applications
in the mobile phone market, the rapid promotion, over the last 10 high-brightness
LED market, the average annual growth rate of 46%.
Emerging application markets such as general illumination, automotive headlamps,
large-screen LCD backlighting and other high-brightness LED market, will become
the new impetus for growth in the next five years, high-brightness LED market, will
continue to grow double. The future landscape lighting and general LED lighting
market, the fastest-growing, landscape lighting LED market growth rate will reach
50% market share of 2% from 2003 to 2008 to 8% in 2004 when sales of LED general
lighting amount is 94 million U.S. dollars by 2010 will grow to 875 million U.S.
dollars, an average annual growth rate of 52.3%, when the LED will be the world's
12 billion to 14 billion U.S. dollars of the lighting market to occupy an important
position.
LED Backlight LED applications is the future of a huge market, with the LED backlight
module prices continue to decline, its price will gradually be reduced to within
the acceptable range, and, ultimately, produce a clear alternative to the CCFL.
The world's leading supplier of LED and regions are Japan, Taiwan, the United States
and Europe, including Taiwan, mainland China and South Korea, and other non-Japan
Asia region is a global LED industry, the fastest-growing region.
In the United States, about one-third of primary energy for power generation, while
another 20% of electricity used for lighting, assuming that the current lighting
market in incandescent, fluorescent and high-pressure gas discharge lamp of the
market share respectively 42%, 41%, 17%, then the total efficiency of the lighting
at about 45-65lm / W. If the LED lighting luminous efficiency can reach 150-200lm
/ W targets, and all to replace the traditional lighting, then the total lighting
efficiency can be increased to more than double the U.S. The electricity consumption
for lighting will be reduced by half, therefore, all of the power consumption will
be reduced by more than one-tenth. 2025 United States each year's electricity consumption
is about 5.25 trillion degrees, the retail price per kWh 0.07 U.S. dollars terms,
consumers pay about 350 billion U.S. dollars annually, so the use of LED lighting
to save electricity 525 billion per year degrees, consumers every year could save
35 billion U.S. dollars. While the world is concerned, this figure will expand 3
to 4 times. The United States a nuclear power plant's annual capacity is about 72
billion degrees (per seat 1GW of generation capacity, generation time for each of
365 × 24-hour power hour utilization rate of 87% basis), saving 525 billion savings
of approximately 70 degrees means that nuclear power plant's annual generating capacity.
Seoul Semiconductor (Seoul Semiconductor Co. Ltd.) Successfully developed and launched
the world's brightest P4 LED lighting technology. P4 only a single chip, in the
1A (1 Amp) issued under the 240 lm (lumens) brightness, in order to create the industry's
most efficient brightness 100lm/W350mA, opposed to the traditional fluorescent lamp
of 70lm / W and the traditional light bulb 15 lm / W a brighter and more cost-effective.
Traditional LED lighting technology to merge several pieces of chips, can be issued
more than 100lm brightness, while Seoul Semiconductor's P4 is the world's only research
and development through a single chip, has been able to send 240lm. Seoul Semiconductor's
patent and assembly technology, so that P4 can offer the highest luminous flux and
the superior reliability characteristics needed to meet customer thermal management
requirements. P4's unique design, can be widely used in lighting applications and
industries including: automotive, mobile phone flashing lights, flashlights, LCD
TV screen's backlight source, projectors, home appliances, traffic lights, street
lamps, architectural and decorative The lighting and general illumination.
Third, China's LED application market analysis
Applications 1: the main display is a LED application market,
full-color displays have been strong.
An early start of China's LED display market, the market appeared on a group of
highly powerful LED display manufacturer. Present LED display has been widely applied
to the station, banking, securities and hospitals. Demand in the LED on, LED display
screen LED indicator behind in second, accounting for LED total sales 23.1%. As
for the LED display brightness and life in the requirements on the LED indicator
is higher than the average LED indicator on top of the price, which led to display
with LED market reached 3.24 billion yuan, more than a LED indicator had moved onto
the main applications. With unique advantages, LED full color display widely used
in sports venues, municipal square, concerts, stations, airports and other places.
Application 2: small size backlight market slows down, the
large size will become the new focus.
LED has long been used in mobile phone-based small-size LCD panel backlighting market,
continued growth in mobile phone production led to the rapid development of backlighting
market. In particular, the emergence of color screen cell phones in 2003 is to promote
the rapid development of white LED market. However, with the production of mobile
phones to enter a stable phase of growth and technological upgrading led to LCD
panels for mobile phones reduce the number of backlight LED to make LED backlighting
in mobile phone usage slowdown. Slowdown in volume growth coupled with the continuous
decline in average price, eventually leading to the small size backlight market
growth sluggish at the same time, the large-sized backlight market has become the
new favorite vendor.
Applications 3: Automotive Lamps great market potential, but
the short term the market is difficult to start.
LED headlights of a vehicle driven by low power consumption, long life and the corresponding
speed characteristics. Statistics show that, in the car driving at 100 kilometers
per hour, the vehicle is equipped with LED brake lights are not equipped with LED
brake lights than the vehicle braking distance will be reduced by 7 feet. At present,
LED has been gradually applied to the third brake light on the car. While the LED
is still faced with units of low-wattage lumens, as well as related policies restrictions,
taillights and front lights into the car market will take some time, but with the
decline in the cost performance ratio as well as the enhancement of luminescence
efficiency, LED will gradually realize the ultimate From the vehicle's interior,
rear to the front of the transfer, ultimately occupy the entire automotive lamp
market. With a huge production capacity car, LED lamp market faces enormous development
potential.
Application 4: Interior lighting market gradually started,
traffic lights market entry period of steady growth.
Interior LED lighting market is another emerging market. Through the current control,
LED can achieve hundreds or even thousands of color change. At this stage, pay attention
to the era of personalized, LED color LED decorative lights will help diversify
the market's development. LED already made a small decorative lamps, decorative
wall applications in hotels, living room. After many years of replacement work,
the nation's major cities from the traditional traffic lights replaced with LED
traffic lights have been drawing to a close. But with the completion of the work
to replace, LED traffic lights, the market will no longer be maintained rapid growth.
Applications 5: Landscape lighting market rapidly.
Landscape lighting market mainly in the streets, squares and other public places
decorative lighting the main driving force mainly from the government. By the 2008
Beijing Olympic Games and 2010 Shanghai World Expo impact of Beijing, Shanghai and
other organizations to accelerate the pace of landscape lighting, due to LED low
power consumption, electricity consumption in the huge landscape lighting market
has a strong market competitiveness. At present, LED has been increasingly applied
to the landscape lighting markets.
In addition, the Olympics and World Expo will be a major role by far is no longer
on its own landscape lighting market led the growth is more important is its role
model. Other cities seeing the LED in the landscape lighting in the outstanding
performance will be reduced for the LED landscape lighting use concerns, accelerate
the use of LE in landscape lighting applications. LED will be from a city of rapidly
moving toward the secondary and tertiary urban expansion.
Applications 6: General lighting market road is long, long
way to go.
For entry into general lighting market, the power white LED In addition to face,
such as light-emitting efficiency is low, cooling is not good, high costs and other
issues, will face to the optical, mechanical and electronic control, etc. The integration
of LED lighting products common standard-setting . Address these problems requires
a long period of time.
As the hotel, business hall, high-grade commercial office and other commercial establishments
relative to the price sensitivity of the low. Same time, those high-end places more
focus on highlighting grade and distinguished position, for the new products have
a greater interest in degrees. These have reduced the LED lighting into the threshold.
LED lighting will be the first to enter the commercial market, and gradually to
the civilian market expansion.
Fourth, the Chinese LED market manufacturers to analyze the
China's LED industry started in the twentieth century, 70's, late 90's high-brightness
LED industry have developed rapidly. 2003 Science and Technology launched the National
Semiconductor Lighting Project, while promoting national semiconductor lighting
industrial bases in the construction of a total built Dalian Light Industrial Park,
Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park, Nanchang Linkage Optical Science and Technology
Park, Xiamen Kaiyuan Science and Technology Park, Beijing Yizhuang Economic and
Technological Development Zone and Shenzhen Guangming Hi-Tech District, six industrial
bases. China's current LED enterprises more than 600 enterprises mainly in the downstream
packaging and applications, domestic engaged in LED upstream epitaxial films and
the middle-chip companies around more than 10.
China's LED industry's overall technological strength is not strong, he was at the
initial stage, the enterprise scale general too small. But the LED industry has
caused the state attaches great importance to "national long-term Science and Technology
Development Plan" will be a clear semiconductor lighting products listed as "areas
of focus and its priority theme," that "focus on energy-efficient, long life semiconductor
lighting products. "industry, the National Development and Reform Commission started
the ten key energy-saving projects, put forward the" Eleventh Five-Year "period
will achieve savings of 240 million tons of standard coal energy-saving targets,
which is an important aspect of green lighting. Throughout the lighting field, China
is the world's largest producer of electric lighting, the second largest export
country, semiconductor lighting industry has a strong industrial base, so the future
of China's LED will face tremendous opportunities for development. |
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